Middlesbrough v Rotherham United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Middlesbrough drew with Rotherham United 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Marcus Forss for 1+ shots total (86%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Sam Greenwood for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Forss | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Morgan Rogers | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matt Crooks | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christ Junior Tiehi | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hayden Hackney | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morgan Rogers | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcus Forss | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rotherham United 1–0 Middlesbrough Dec 2023
- Rotherham United 1–0 Middlesbrough May 2023
- Middlesbrough 0–0 Rotherham United Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Middlesbrough v Rotherham United?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Middlesbrough v Rotherham United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sam Greenwood at 83% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.