Millwall v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Millwall drew with Preston North End 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Michael Smith for 1+ shots total (91%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mads Frøkjær for 1+ tackles (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Smith | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mihailo Ivanović | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Odeluga Offiah | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Casper De Norre | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Smith | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aidomo Emakhu | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Camiel Neghli | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Derek Mazou-Sacko | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mads Frøkjær | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfie Devine | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mads Frøkjær | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thierno Ballo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 0–2 Millwall Feb 2026
- Preston North End 1–1 Millwall Feb 2025
- Millwall 3–1 Preston North End Sep 2024
- Millwall 1–1 Preston North End Jan 2024
- Preston North End 1–1 Millwall Oct 2023
- Millwall 2–0 Preston North End Apr 2023
- Preston North End 2–4 Millwall Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Millwall v Preston North End?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Millwall v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mads Frøkjær at 80% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.