Millwall v Rotherham United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Millwall beat Rotherham United 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Zian Flemming for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Joe Bryan for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kevin Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Longman | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Bradshaw | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Duncan Watmore | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Eaves | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Casper De Norre | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Bryan | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Saville | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Leonard | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Eaves | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Nombe | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 18% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 13% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 13% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rotherham United 2–1 Millwall Apr 2024
- Millwall 3–0 Rotherham United Jan 2023
- Rotherham United 1–1 Millwall Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Millwall v Rotherham United?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Millwall v Rotherham United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Joe Bryan at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.