Norwich v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Svante Ingelsson for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ali Ahmed for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ali Ahmed | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joel Ndala | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jack Stacey | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kenny McLean | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jarvis Thornton | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jaden Heskey | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joel Ndala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kellen Fisher | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charlie McNeill | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Wright | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 37% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Norwich Nov 2025
- Norwich 2–3 Sheffield Wednesday Mar 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Norwich Nov 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Norwich Apr 2024
- Norwich 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Sheffield Wednesday?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ali Ahmed at 77% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.