Oxford United v Bristol City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Oxford United drew with Bristol City 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Will Lankshear for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sinclair Armstrong for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lankshear | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sinclair Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anis Mehmeti | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emil Riis Jacobsen | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Scott Twine | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sinclair Armstrong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stanley Mills | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Scott Twine | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Brannagan | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Randell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Earthy | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yunus Konak | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bristol City 1–3 Oxford United Sep 2025
- Oxford United 1–1 Bristol City Feb 2025
- Bristol City 2–1 Oxford United Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Oxford United v Bristol City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Oxford United v Bristol City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sinclair Armstrong at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.