Oxford United v Derby County
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Oxford United beat Derby County 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ben Brereton Díaz for 1+ shots total (90%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Rhian Brewster for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhian Brewster | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Ozoh | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Agyemang | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Weimann | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 9 | ✓ |
| Brodie Spencer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Will Vaulks | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Siriki Dembélé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Currie | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nik Prelec | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Derby County 1–0 Oxford United Apr 2026
- Derby County 0–0 Oxford United Feb 2025
- Oxford United 1–1 Derby County Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Oxford United v Derby County?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Oxford United v Derby County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rhian Brewster at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.