Preston North End v Bristol City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Preston North End lost to Bristol City 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Scott Twine for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yu Hirakawa for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Scott Twine | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jusef Erabi | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lorent Tolaj | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dominic Ballard | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Leroy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jed Wallace | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Lang | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Leroy | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Thompson | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bristol City 0–2 Preston North End Jan 2026
- Preston North End 0–0 Bristol City Sep 2025
- Bristol City 2–2 Preston North End May 2025
- Preston North End 1–3 Bristol City Nov 2024
- Preston North End 2–0 Bristol City Jan 2024
- Bristol City 1–1 Preston North End Aug 2023
- Preston North End 1–2 Bristol City Feb 2023
- Bristol City 2–1 Preston North End Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Preston North End v Bristol City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Preston North End v Bristol City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yu Hirakawa at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.