Preston North End v Oxford United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Preston North End lost to Oxford United 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Alfie Devine for 1+ shots total (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Daniel Jebbison for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniel Jebbison | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stanley Mills | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yunus Konak | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Lang | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Lang | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Thompson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nik Prelec | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Thompson | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Jebbison | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 40% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 20% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Oxford United 1–2 Preston North End Dec 2025
- Preston North End 1–1 Oxford United Jan 2025
- Oxford United 3–1 Preston North End Aug 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Preston North End v Oxford United?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Preston North End v Oxford United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Daniel Jebbison at 80% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.