Queens Park Rangers v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Queens Park Rangers drew with Preston North End 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Paul Smyth for 1+ shots total (91%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Leon Scarlett for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Smyth | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jusef Erabi | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johnny Kenny | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
| Rumarn Burrell | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leon Scarlett | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Smyth | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Glen Kamara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leo Leroy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Lang | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kwame Poku | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 9 | ✓ |
| Stanley Mills | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Thompson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Lang | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 1–1 Queens Park Rangers Apr 2026
- Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Preston North End Aug 2025
- Preston North End 1–2 Queens Park Rangers Apr 2025
- Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Preston North End Dec 2024
- Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Preston North End Apr 2024
- Preston North End 0–2 Queens Park Rangers Dec 2023
- Queens Park Rangers 0–2 Preston North End Apr 2023
- Preston North End 0–1 Queens Park Rangers Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Queens Park Rangers v Preston North End?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Queens Park Rangers v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leon Scarlett at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.