Southampton v Stoke City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being George Hirst for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Svante Ingelsson for 1+ tackles (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hirst | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cyle Larin | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Djibril Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Johnson | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Galbraith | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stoke City 0–2 Southampton Jan 2026
- Southampton 1–2 Stoke City Aug 2025
- Southampton 3–2 Stoke City Oct 2024
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke City Apr 2024
- Stoke City 0–1 Southampton Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Southampton v Stoke City?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Southampton v Stoke City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Svante Ingelsson at 80% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.