Stoke City v Leicester
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City drew with Leicester 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Patson Daka for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Lamine Cissé for 1+ fouls drawn (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patson Daka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patson Daka | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Pearson | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Monga | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeremy Monga | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 5 | ✓ |
| Milan Smit | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven N'Zonzi | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Milan Smit | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Thomas | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divine Mukasa | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 39% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leicester 2–1 Stoke City Nov 2025
- Stoke City 0–5 Leicester Feb 2024
- Leicester 2–0 Stoke City Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Leicester?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Leicester?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lamine Cissé at 74% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.