Stoke City v Swansea City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City lost to Swansea City 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Žan Vipotnik for 1+ shots total (90%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Djibril Soumaré for 1+ tackles (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Žan Vipotnik | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Idah | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djibril Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Melker Widell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maksym Talovierov | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Róbert Boženík | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Melker Widell | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ji-sung Eom | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ji-sung Eom | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ethan Galbraith | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Swansea City 2–0 Stoke City Mar 2026
- Stoke City 2–1 Swansea City Dec 2025
- Stoke City 3–1 Swansea City Feb 2025
- Swansea City 0–0 Stoke City Oct 2024
- Swansea City 3–0 Stoke City Apr 2024
- Stoke City 1–1 Swansea City Dec 2023
- Swansea City 1–3 Stoke City Feb 2023
- Stoke City 1–1 Swansea City Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Swansea City?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Swansea City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Djibril Soumaré at 89% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.