Sunderland v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland drew with Preston North End 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ryan Ledson for 1+ fouls committed (89%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Will Keane for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Ledson | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Keane | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tom Watson | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Porteous | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tom Watson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dan Neil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrew Hughes | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chris Rigg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 40% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 0–0 Sunderland Nov 2024
- Sunderland 2–0 Preston North End Jan 2024
- Preston North End 2–1 Sunderland Aug 2023
- Preston North End 0–3 Sunderland May 2023
- Sunderland 0–0 Preston North End Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Preston North End?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Will Keane at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.