Preston North End v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Preston North End drew with Sunderland 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Sam Greenwood for 1+ fouls committed (89%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Romaine Mundle for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Connolly | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mads Frøkjær | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ali McCann | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alan Browne | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aaron Connolly | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brad Potts | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andrew Hughes | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emil Riis Jacobsen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 63% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 1–1 Preston North End Mar 2025
- Sunderland 2–0 Preston North End Jan 2024
- Preston North End 2–1 Sunderland Aug 2023
- Preston North End 0–3 Sunderland May 2023
- Sunderland 0–0 Preston North End Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Preston North End v Sunderland?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Preston North End v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Romaine Mundle at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.