Swansea City v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Swansea City lost to Coventry City 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Ellis Simms for 1+ shots total (95%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Gonçalo Franco for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Franco | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Žan Vipotnik | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Cullen | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Milan van Ewijk | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jahnoah Markelo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Malick Yalcouyé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Franco | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronald | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Eccles | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 1–0 Swansea City Dec 2025
- Swansea City 0–2 Coventry City Feb 2025
- Coventry City 1–2 Swansea City Sep 2024
- Coventry City 2–2 Swansea City Dec 2023
- Swansea City 1–1 Coventry City Aug 2023
- Swansea City 0–0 Coventry City Apr 2023
- Coventry City 3–3 Swansea City Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Swansea City v Coventry City?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Swansea City v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gonçalo Franco at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.