Swansea City v Ipswich
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Swansea City lost to Ipswich 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ronald for 1+ fouls drawn (85%, had 4). Its clearest miss: George Hirst for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Hirst | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasey McAteer | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Cullen | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zeidane Inoussa | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Franco | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| George Hirst | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Zeidane Inoussa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Žan Vipotnik | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Melker Widell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Franco | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Ipswich 3–0 Swansea City Feb 2026
- Swansea City 1–2 Ipswich Feb 2024
- Ipswich 3–2 Swansea City Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Swansea City v Ipswich?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Swansea City v Ipswich?
The most confident call it got wrong was George Hirst at 83% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.