Swansea City v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Swansea City beat Watford 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Rocco Vata for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Amin Nabizada for 1+ shots total (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Vata | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Žan Vipotnik | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Idah | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Iker Bravo | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amin Nabizada | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ji-sung Eom | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Melker Widell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stephen Eustaquio | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Zemura | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Melker Widell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Zemura | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 64% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Watford 0–2 Swansea City Jan 2026
- Swansea City 1–1 Watford Aug 2025
- Watford 1–0 Swansea City Mar 2025
- Swansea City 1–0 Watford Nov 2024
- Watford 1–1 Swansea City Mar 2024
- Swansea City 0–1 Watford Oct 2023
- Swansea City 4–0 Watford Dec 2022
- Watford 1–2 Swansea City Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Swansea City v Watford?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Swansea City v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Amin Nabizada at 88% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.