Watford v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford drew with Plymouth Argyle 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Vakoun Issouf Bayo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jeremy Ngakia for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Ngakia | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vakoun Issouf Bayo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rocco Vata | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hardie | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julio Pleguezuelo | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 7 | ✓ |
| Kwadwo Baah | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giorgi Chakvetadze | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adam Randell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Imrân Louza | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mustapha Bundu | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 2–2 Watford Nov 2024
- Watford 2–0 Plymouth Argyle Aug 2024
- Plymouth Argyle 3–3 Watford Jan 2024
- Watford 0–0 Plymouth Argyle Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Plymouth Argyle?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jeremy Ngakia at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.