West Brom v Burnley
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Brom beat Burnley 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Aaron Ramsey for 1+ shots total (90%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Josh Laurent for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Laurent | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aaron Ramsey | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Zeki Amdouni | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Price | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ugo Raghouber | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harry Whitwell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aaron Ramsey | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Diakité | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Felix Horn Myhre | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Styles | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Morgan | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 37% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 37% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 1–1 West Brom Mar 2025
- West Brom 0–0 Burnley Nov 2024
- Burnley 2–1 West Brom Jan 2023
- West Brom 1–1 Burnley Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Brom v Burnley?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Brom v Burnley?
The most confident call it got wrong was Josh Laurent at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.