West Brom v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Brom beat Luton 5–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Daryl Dike for 1+ shots total (91%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Ousmane Diakité for 1+ tackles (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daryl Dike | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Callum Styles | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Diakité | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Price | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thelo Aasgaard | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lasse Selvåg Nordås | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Mowatt | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daryl Dike | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darnell Furlong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 8 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 28% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 1–1 West Brom Nov 2024
- Luton 2–3 West Brom Jan 2023
- West Brom 0–0 Luton Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Brom v Luton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Brom v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ousmane Diakité at 89% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.