Girona FC v Celta Vigo
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Girona FC lost to Celta Vigo 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ferran Jutglà for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Iván Martín for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferran Jutglà | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iván Martín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fran Beltrán | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Óscar Mingueza | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilaix Moriba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Gil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Domínguez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Williot Swedberg | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Román | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Girona FC Sep 2025
- Girona FC 2–2 Celta Vigo Mar 2025
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Girona FC Sep 2024
- Celta Vigo 0–1 Girona FC Jan 2024
- Girona FC 1–0 Celta Vigo Oct 2023
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Girona FC May 2023
- Girona FC 0–1 Celta Vigo Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Girona FC v Celta Vigo?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Girona FC v Celta Vigo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Iván Martín at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.