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SharpXI©
La Liga 26/27
AL

Alex Baena

Central midfielder 33% of 30 recent starts Atlético MadridLa Liga 26/27

Next match
Atlético Madrid at Deportivo Alavés›
Sat 10 OctReferee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Shot map Foul map

Last games
max 50 on record
What a window counts

Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.

All markets last 10 games

Compared with a La Liga central midfielder, 25/26, 2,700 appearances

Bet line
Odds
Bookmaker
MarketHit rateModel
Shots on target1.11 per 90
60%
6 of 103.5×
1.73bet365Edge
Total shots2.93 per 90
90%Hot
9 of 102.1×
1.10PPEdge
Fouls won1.39 per 90
70%
7 of 101.4×
1.12bet365Edge
Fouls committed1.81 per 90
60%
6 of 101.0×
1.36PPEdge
Tackles0.84 per 90
50%
5 of 100.8×
44%
4 of 95.4×
Cards0.28 per 90
20%
2 of 101.2×
4.20PPEdge
Goals0.56 per 90
30%
3 of 105.8×
form only
Assists0.14 per 90
10%
1 of 101.6×
form only
Hit rate, per-90 and the market price are free. Switch the bet line above — each carries its own price where the bookmaker offers one. What’s paid is the model’s edge: whether that price is wrong. Rare tails the model can’t beat, like 3+ on target, stay hit-rate-only.

Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox

Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.

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Over the last 10 La Liga games, Alex Baena has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10), 1+ total shot in 90%, 1+ foul committed in 60%, 1+ foul won in 70%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.

last 10

Comparable wide midfielders

The closest 5 profiles to Alex Baena in La Liga, 26/27 — drawn from 6 wide midfielders with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.

PlayerAppsShots/90Fouls/90
Alex BaenaAtlético Madrid 72.97 1.98
Ademola LookmanAtlético Madrid 71.96 1.37
Ramón TerratsGetafe 62.88 1.52
Giuliano SimeoneAtlético Madrid 71.71 1.33
David LarrubiaMálaga CF 81.90 0.95
Joaquín MuñozMálaga CF 81.00 1.00
These 5, combined 1.92 1.22

No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.

Recent matches

The last 10 games Alex Baena featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.

MatchMinSoTShots FoulsWonTckCards
Real Madrid20 Sep 67 1 1 3 1 1 0
Osasuna16 Sep 90 2 5 0 2 1 0
@ Real Sociedad13 Sep 59 0 2 3 1 1 0
@ Athletic Club5 Sep 76 1 2 0 0 0 0
@ Sevilla30 Aug 85 2 4 0 3 0 0
Villarreal23 Aug 45 0 0 3 0 0 1
Málaga CF19 Aug 33 1 1 1 1 0 0
@ Villarreal24 May 61 0 2 1 0 0 0
Girona FC17 May 61 1 3 0 1 2 0
Celta Vigo9 May 69 0 1 2 1 1 1
Officials on record
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea 12 games Alex Baena booked in 4 4.32cards/game 0.89×vs league
Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias 10 games Alex Baena booked in 1 4.35cards/game 0.90×vs league
César Soto Grado 8 games Alex Baena booked in 4 5.30cards/game 1.09×vs league
José Luis Munuera Montero 7 games Alex Baena booked in 4 4.96cards/game 1.02×vs league

Raw counts from every match on record, across 14 current La Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All La Liga referees

Frequently asked

How often does Alex Baena have a shot on target?

Over the last 10 La Liga games, Alex Baena has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.

How many shots on target does Alex Baena average?

Across the last 10 La Liga games, Alex Baena is averaging 1.11 shots on target and 2.93 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.

How often does Alex Baena get booked?

Alex Baena is averaging 0.28 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.

Does Alex Baena commit or win more fouls?

Over the last 10 games Alex Baena commits 1.81 fouls per 90 and wins 1.39 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.

Which player markets does SharpXI model for Alex Baena?

Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Alex Baena plays as a midfielder.

Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.