Auxerre v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Auxerre beat Toulouse 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Dayann Methalie for 1+ tackles (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mario Sauer for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayann Methalie | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 7 | ✓ |
| Danny Namaso | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mario Sauer | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elisha Owusu | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Marvin Senaya | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abu Francis | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kévin Danois | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gideon Mensah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sidibé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvin Senaya | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Danny Namaso | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lassine Sinayoko | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 0–0 Auxerre Feb 2026
- Auxerre 2–2 Toulouse Feb 2025
- Toulouse 2–0 Auxerre Dec 2024
- Toulouse 1–1 Auxerre May 2023
- Auxerre 0–5 Toulouse Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Auxerre v Toulouse?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Auxerre v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mario Sauer at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.