Belgium v Italy
How often each Belgium and Italy player has hit the lines bookmakers price — 1+ shots on target, 2+ shots, 1+ fouls, a card — across their recent matches. How hit rates work ↓
Going into Belgium v Italy on Sun 15 Nov: Dodi Lukebakio (Belgium) leads the home side for 1+ shots on target — 6 of 10 (60%). Raw hit rates from recent matches, not odds.
What sits behind these numbers
Line-ups aren't confirmed yet. For a national team we don't guess one — a squad changes too much between windows — so the players fill in once the confirmed team sheet lands, about an hour before kick-off. Hit rates are each player's recent club form, not a forecast for this match. These players joined recently, and the games behind these rates were played elsewhere: Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta), Diego Moreira (AC Milan), Dodi Lukebakio (Sevilla), Kevin De Bruyne (SSC Napoli), Koni De Winter (AC Milan), Leandro Trossard (Arsenal), Loïs Openda (Olympique Lyonnais), Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig), Malick Fofana (Sunderland), Mandela Keita (Parma), Matías Fernández-Pardo (Newcastle United), Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton & Hove Albion), Mike Penders (RC Strasbourg), Nathan Ngoy (Lille), Romelu Lukaku (SSC Napoli), Roméo Lavia (Chelsea), Senne Lammens (Manchester United), Timothy Castagne (Fulham), Youri Tielemans (Manchester United) — read as prior form, not this club's.
How hit rates and windows work
Each row's hit rate is the share of a player's games in the window where the bet would have landed. These are 24/25 figures from completed matches: Last N is their last N games; Season is their whole 24/25; H2H is only games against this opponent.
🔒 Model is the paid layer — the model's +EV verdict on each line, per fixture in the tool. The hit rates here are free.
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New to these markets? The player stats guide explains what each line means and how to read a hit rate, and the glossary defines the terms.
Not appointed yet — referees are usually confirmed two to three days before kick-off. See the referee panel
Form is only half the picture. A player hitting a line 5 of 5 can still be poor value if the true chance is lower than the streak suggests. The SharpXI tool pairs every one of these with the model's real probability — and flags the runs it doesn't back, so you're not chasing a streak about to regress. That honest verdict is the layer we're building into the tool.
Hit rates are raw recent form from public match data, for context — not a prediction or a guarantee. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.
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