Premier League · 25/26

Arsenal v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Arsenal1 – 0 Burnley 18 May 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Eberechi Eze	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Bukayo Saka	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Kai Havertz	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Leandro Trossard	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Zeki Amdouni	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Riccardo Calafiori	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls drawn	1+	86%	1	✓
Leandro Trossard	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	84%	0	✗
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	84%	3	✓
Martin Ødegaard	shots total	1+	79%	1	✓
Eberechi Eze	fouls drawn	1+	78%	4	✓
Bukayo Saka	fouls drawn	1+	78%	3	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls committed	1+	76%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	53%	1 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	34%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	19%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Arsenal & Burnley player stats→ Arsenal players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works