Premier League · 24/25

Aston Villa v Leicester

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Aston Villa2 – 1 Leicester 4 Jan 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 9 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Jordan Ayew	fouls drawn	1+	100%	3	✓
Leon Bailey	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Jamie Vardy	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Jacob Ramsey	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Jordan Ayew	fouls committed	1+	81%	2	✓
Bilal El Khannouss	fouls committed	1+	79%	2	✓
Jordan Ayew	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Youri Tielemans	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Boubacar Kamara	fouls committed	1+	76%	0	✗
Boubacar Kamara	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗
Ezri Konsa	fouls drawn	1+	73%	1	✓
Leon Bailey	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	3 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	34%	1 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Aston Villa & Leicester player stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ Leicester players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works