Premier League · 24/25

Leicester v Aston Villa

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Leicester1 – 2 Aston Villa 31 Aug 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 8 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Jordan Ayew	fouls drawn	1+	100%	5	✓
Jhon Durán	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Stephy Mavididi	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Jacob Ramsey	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
John McGinn	fouls drawn	1+	86%	2	✓
Facundo Buonanotte	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Amadou Onana	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Facundo Buonanotte	fouls committed	1+	83%	1	✓
Morgan Rogers	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Jordan Ayew	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Ezri Konsa	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓
Jamie Vardy	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	54%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	53%	3 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	29%	9 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Leicester & Aston Villa player stats→ Leicester players & stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works