Premier League · 24/25

Aston Villa v Southampton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Aston Villa1 – 0 Southampton 7 Dec 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
Jhon Durán	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Jaden Philogene-Bidace	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
John McGinn	fouls drawn	1+	88%	4	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Cameron Archer	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Morgan Rogers	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Tyler Dibling	fouls drawn	1+	86%	2	✓
Youri Tielemans	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Jhon Durán	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Adam Armstrong	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Flynn Downes	fouls committed	1+	81%	4	✓
Leon Bailey	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
John McGinn	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	69%	1 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	58%	4 cards	✗
Btts	Yes	53%	No	✗

Dig deeper

Aston Villa & Southampton player stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ Southampton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works