Southampton v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Southampton lost to Aston Villa 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ross Stewart for 1+ shots total (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Asensio | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amadou Onana | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ross Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matty Cash | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcus Rashford | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Paul Onuachu | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyler Dibling | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amadou Onana | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 1–0 Southampton Dec 2024
- Southampton 0–1 Aston Villa Jan 2023
- Aston Villa 1–0 Southampton Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Southampton v Aston Villa?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Southampton v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ross Stewart at 90% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.