Brighton v Fulham
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brighton drew with Fulham 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Rodrigo Muniz for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo Muniz for 1+ fouls drawn (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Muniz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harry Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Raúl Jiménez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Muniz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mats Wieffer | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kenny Tete | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Saša Lukić | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Georginio Rutter | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Georginio Rutter | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danny Welbeck | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua King | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Diego Gómez | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Saša Lukić | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton Jan 2026
- Brighton 2–1 Fulham Mar 2025
- Fulham 3–1 Brighton Dec 2024
- Fulham 3–0 Brighton Mar 2024
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham Oct 2023
- Brighton 0–1 Fulham Feb 2023
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brighton v Fulham?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brighton v Fulham?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo Muniz at 92% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.