Premier League · 25/26

Burnley v Brentford

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley3 – 4 Brentford 28 Feb 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Igor Thiago	shots total	1+	96%	4	✓
Kevin Schade	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Jacob Bruun Larsen	shots total	1+	90%	0	✗
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	88%	5	✓
Dango Ouattara	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls drawn	1+	85%	3	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	84%	0	✗
Mathias Jensen	shots total	1+	83%	1	✓
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	78%	1	✓
Kevin Schade	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	shots total	1+	77%	1	✓
Mikkel Damsgaard	shots total	1+	74%	4	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	53%	7 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Brentford player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Brentford players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works