Premier League · 25/26

Burnley v Man City

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley0 – 1 Man City 22 Apr 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 13 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Erling Haaland	shots total	1+	100%	5	✓
Jérémy Doku	fouls drawn	1+	100%	2	✓
Savinho	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Antoine Semenyo	shots total	1+	95%	2	✓
Jérémy Doku	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Rayan Cherki	shots total	1+	93%	8	✓
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	82%	2	✓
Erling Haaland	shots on target	1+	80%	2	✓
Nico O'Reilly	shots total	1+	77%	4	✓
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓
Bernardo Silva	shots total	1+	74%	3	✓
Rayan Cherki	fouls drawn	1+	73%	1	✓
Marc Guéhi	shots total	1+	73%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	54%	1 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	50%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	23%	0 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Man City player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Man City players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works