Premier League · 25/26

Burnley v Nottingham Forest

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley1 – 1 Nottingham Forest 20 Sep 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Dan Ndoye	fouls drawn	1+	100%	2	✓
Dilane Bakwa	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Chris Wood	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	90%	2	✓
Morgan Gibbs-White	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Dan Ndoye	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Oleksandr Zinchenko	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	79%	1	✓
Douglas Luiz	fouls committed	1+	79%	1	✓
Douglas Luiz	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Callum Hudson Odoi	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Elliot Anderson	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Josh Laurent	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	52%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	29%	2 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Nottingham Forest player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Nottingham Forest players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works