Premier League · 25/26

Nottingham Forest v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Nottingham Forest4 – 1 Burnley 19 Apr 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 9 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Dilane Bakwa	shots total	1+	96%	0	✗
Chris Wood	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Igor Jesus	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Morgan Gibbs-White	shots total	1+	93%	5	✓
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Marcus Edwards	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Neco Williams	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Elliot Anderson	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	80%	4	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Omari Hutchinson	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Elliot Anderson	fouls drawn	1+	78%	3	✓
Florentino Luís	fouls committed	1+	76%	4	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	44%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	43%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	2 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Nottingham Forest & Burnley player stats→ Nottingham Forest players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works