Premier League · 25/26

Chelsea v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Chelsea1 – 1 Burnley 21 Feb 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Cole Palmer	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls drawn	1+	100%	2	✓
João Pedro	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Enzo Fernández	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Pedro Neto	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Marcus Edwards	shots total	1+	88%	4	✓
Jaidon Anthony	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	81%	4	✓
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	79%	1	✓
João Pedro	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Cole Palmer	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Moisés Caicedo	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓
Josh Laurent	fouls committed	1+	74%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	69%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	44%	6 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Chelsea & Burnley player stats→ Chelsea players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works