Crystal Palace v Burnley
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Crystal Palace lost to Burnley 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Zian Flemming for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Marcus Edwards for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Josh Laurent | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismaïla Sarr | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcus Edwards | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Evann Guessand | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zian Flemming | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bashir Humphreys | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace Dec 2025
- Crystal Palace 3–0 Burnley Feb 2024
- Burnley 0–2 Crystal Palace Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Crystal Palace v Burnley?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Crystal Palace v Burnley?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marcus Edwards at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.