Premier League · 25/26

Burnley v Crystal Palace

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley0 – 1 Crystal Palace 3 Dec 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 6 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Jean-Philippe Mateta	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Eddie Nketiah	shots total	1+	100%	0	✗
Justin Devenny	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Marcus Edwards	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Yéremy Pino	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Jacob Bruun Larsen	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls drawn	1+	86%	2	✓
Eddie Nketiah	fouls drawn	1+	86%	0	✗
Eddie Nketiah	fouls committed	1+	81%	1	✓
Eddie Nketiah	shots on target	1+	80%	0	✗
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Yéremy Pino	fouls committed	1+	76%	0	✗
Daichi Kamada	shots total	1+	74%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	54%	1 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	52%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	28%	0 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Crystal Palace player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Crystal Palace players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works