Everton v Crystal Palace
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Everton beat Crystal Palace 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Eddie Nketiah for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Thierno Barry for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Nketiah | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hayden Hackney | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Merlin Röhl | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dwight McNeil | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyrique George | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yéremy Pino | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Merlin Röhl | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thierno Barry | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Crystal Palace 2–2 Everton May 2026
- Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace Oct 2025
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Everton Feb 2025
- Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace Sep 2024
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 2024
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Everton Nov 2023
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 2023
- Everton 3–0 Crystal Palace Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Everton v Crystal Palace?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Everton v Crystal Palace?
The most confident call it got wrong was Thierno Barry at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.