Everton v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Everton beat Southampton 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Beto for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Carlos Alcaraz for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Carlos Alcaraz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ross Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 8 | ✓ |
| Ashley Young | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| James Garner | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iliman Ndiaye | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jay Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dwight McNeil | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Welington | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joe Aribo | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 1–0 Everton Nov 2024
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Sep 2024
- Everton 1–2 Southampton Jan 2023
- Southampton 1–2 Everton Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Everton v Southampton?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Everton v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Carlos Alcaraz at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.