Fulham v Crystal Palace
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fulham lost to Crystal Palace 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Eddie Nketiah for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Daichi Kamada for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Nketiah | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antonee Robinson | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo García | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yéremy Pino | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anan Khalaili | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oscar Bobb | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Calvin Bassey | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua King | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anan Khalaili | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham Jan 2026
- Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 2025
- Fulham 0–2 Crystal Palace Feb 2025
- Crystal Palace 0–2 Fulham Nov 2024
- Fulham 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 2024
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Fulham Sep 2023
- Fulham 2–2 Crystal Palace May 2023
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Fulham Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fulham v Crystal Palace?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fulham v Crystal Palace?
The most confident call it got wrong was Daichi Kamada at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.