Premier League · 24/25

Man Utd v Southampton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Man Utd3 – 1 Southampton 16 Jan 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Antony	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Alejandro Garnacho	shots total	1+	100%	7	✓
Bruno Fernandes	shots total	1+	96%	5	✓
Amad Diallo	shots total	1+	93%	6	✓
Joshua Zirkzee	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Alejandro Garnacho	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Antony	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Tyler Dibling	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Kamaldeen Sulemana	shots total	1+	80%	4	✓
Rasmus Højlund	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Tyler Dibling	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Toby Collyer	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗
Manuel Ugarte	fouls committed	1+	77%	0	✗
Will Smallbone	shots total	1+	74%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	4 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	53%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	34%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Man Utd & Southampton player stats→ Man Utd players & stats→ Southampton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works