Newcastle v West Ham
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Newcastle beat West Ham 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being William Osula for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mohamadou Kanté for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Osula | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 8 | ✓ |
| Harvey Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamadou Kanté | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Crysencio Summerville | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Crysencio Summerville | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Willock | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Ramsey | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Pablo Felipe | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Ham 3–1 Newcastle Nov 2025
- West Ham 0–1 Newcastle Mar 2025
- Newcastle 0–2 West Ham Nov 2024
- Newcastle 4–3 West Ham Mar 2024
- West Ham 2–2 Newcastle Oct 2023
- West Ham 1–5 Newcastle Apr 2023
- Newcastle 1–1 West Ham Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Newcastle v West Ham?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Newcastle v West Ham?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamadou Kanté at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.