Premier League · 24/25
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Nottingham Forest v Leicester
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Nottingham Forest2 – 2
Leicester
11 May 2025
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ayew | fouls drawn | 1+ | 100% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chris Wood | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ayew | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamie Vardy | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Elanga | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Neco Williams | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bilal El Khannouss | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Btts | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 6 cards | ✓ |
Dig deeper
Nottingham Forest & Leicester player stats→
Nottingham Forest players & stats→
Leicester players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- Leicester 1–3 Nottingham Forest Oct 2024
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 Leicester Jan 2023
- Leicester 4–0 Nottingham Forest Oct 2022
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.