Nilton Varela
Defender MarítimoPrimeira Liga 26/27
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Primeira Liga defender, 25/26, 3,218 appearances
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Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Nilton Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10), 1+ total shot in 20%, 1+ foul committed in 60%, 1+ foul won in 40%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Nilton Varela featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Gil Vicente19 Sep | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benfica5 Sep | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ FC Arouca29 Aug | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Estoril Praia11 Aug | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| @ Estoril Praia17 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| AVS - Futebol SAD11 May | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Rio Ave5 May | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| @ CD Nacional6 Apr | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Sporting CP29 Mar | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Santa Clara23 Feb | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 6 current Primeira Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Primeira Liga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Nilton Varela have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Nilton Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Nilton Varela average?
Across the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Nilton Varela is averaging 0.18 shots on target and 0.36 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Nilton Varela get booked?
Nilton Varela is averaging 0.18 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Nilton Varela commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Nilton Varela commits 1.25 fouls per 90 and wins 1.96 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Nilton Varela?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Nilton Varela plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.