What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Serie A centre-back, 25/26, 1,351 appearances
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Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Serie A games, Lloyd Kelly has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10), 1+ total shot in 30%, 1+ foul committed in 50%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 0% (0 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable centre-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Lloyd Kelly in Serie A, 25/26 — drawn from 53 centre-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd KellyJuventus | 35 | 0.51 | 1.29 |
| Alessandro CircatiParma | 31 | 0.27 | 1.01 |
| Jamil SiebertLecce | 21 | 0.32 | 1.16 |
| Torbjørn HeggemBologna | 27 | 0.47 | 1.32 |
| Victor NelssonHellas Verona | 38 | 0.22 | 1.19 |
| Amir RrahmaniSSC Napoli | 21 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| These 5, combined | 0.37 | 1.14 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Lloyd Kelly featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta20 Sep | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Sassuolo13 Sep | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parma29 Aug | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Frosinone23 Aug | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Torino24 May | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Fiorentina17 May | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Lecce9 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hellas Verona3 May | 80 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| @ AC Milan26 Apr | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bologna19 Apr | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 6 current Serie A officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Serie A referees
Frequently asked
How often does Lloyd Kelly have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Serie A games, Lloyd Kelly has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Lloyd Kelly average?
Across the last 10 Serie A games, Lloyd Kelly is averaging 0.13 shots on target and 0.67 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Lloyd Kelly get booked?
Lloyd Kelly is averaging 0.00 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Lloyd Kelly commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Lloyd Kelly commits 0.94 fouls per 90 and wins 0.67 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Lloyd Kelly?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Lloyd Kelly plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.