Rafael Leão
In 25/26, Rafael Leão has hit 1+ shot on target in 45% of his 29 Serie A appearances (13 of 29), 1+ total shot in 72%, 1+ foul committed in 45%, and 1+ foul won in 66%. He has been booked in 17% (5 of 29). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
All markets last 10 games
Recent matches
The last 10 games Rafael Leão featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari24 May | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Atalanta10 May | 58 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| @ Sassuolo3 May | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juventus26 Apr | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| @ Hellas Verona19 Apr | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Udinese11 Apr | 77 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| @ SSC Napoli6 Apr | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Lazio15 Mar | 67 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inter8 Mar | 73 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Cremonese1 Mar | 90 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Frequently asked
How often does Rafael Leão have a shot on target?
In 25/26, Rafael Leão has hit 1+ shot on target in 45% of his 29 Serie A appearances (13 of 29). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then de-vigs the bookmaker's price.
How many shots on target does Rafael Leão average?
Across 29 Serie A appearances in 25/26, Rafael Leão is averaging 1.16 shots on target and 3.05 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Rafael Leão get booked?
Rafael Leão is averaging 0.24 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Rafael Leão commit or win more fouls?
This season Rafael Leão commits 0.92 fouls per 90 and wins 1.65 — fewer than he wins. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent he faces.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Rafael Leão?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, de-vigged against the bookmaker's price. Rafael Leão plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors, and de-vigging before flagging value. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.