Updated daily through the season. Spot something off? Tell usUpdated daily. Tell us
SharpXI©
Bundesliga 25/26
OL

Oliver Burke

Striker 63% of 30 recent starts 1. FC Union BerlinBundesliga 25/26

Also in: Championship

Next match
1. FC Union Berlin vs SV 07 Elversberg›
Sat 10 OctReferee Tobias Reichel

Shot map Foul map

Last games
max 50 on record
What a window counts

Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.

All markets last 10 games

Compared with a Bundesliga striker, 25/26, 1,379 appearances

Bet line
Odds
MarketHit rateModel
Shots on target0.65 per 90
40%
4 of 101.0×
1.92MGMEdge
Total shots1.30 per 90
50%
5 of 100.7×
1.10MGMEdge
Fouls won0.13 per 90
10%
1 of 100.2×
Fouls committed0.39 per 90
20%
2 of 100.4×
Tackles0.78 per 90
50%
5 of 101.6×
20%
2 of 102.4×
Cards0.26 per 90
20%
2 of 102.2×
Goals0.26 per 90
20%
2 of 101.0×
form only
Assists0.26 per 90
20%
2 of 102.7×
form only
Hit rate, per-90 and the market price are free. Switch the bet line above — each carries its own price where the bookmaker offers one. What’s paid is the model’s edge: whether that price is wrong. Rare tails the model can’t beat, like 3+ on target, stay hit-rate-only.

Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox

Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.

Confirmed by a link. Unsubscribe in one click. Or open the player report.

In 25/26, Oliver Burke has hit 1+ shot on target in 31% of 29 Bundesliga appearances (9 of 29), 1+ total shot in 52%, 1+ foul committed in 28%, 1+ foul won in 21%, and been booked in 14% (4 of 29). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.

last 10

Comparable strikers

The closest 5 profiles to Oliver Burke in Bundesliga, 25/26 — drawn from 47 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.

PlayerAppsShots/90Fouls/90
Oliver Burke1. FC Union Berlin 291.76 0.53
Martijn KaarsFC St. Pauli 291.58 0.53
Andreas HountondjiBurnley 211.74 0.75
Arnaud KalimuendoNottingham Forest 191.90 0.57
Shuto MachinoBorussia M'gladbach 322.16 1.16
Marius Bülter1. FC Köln 322.35 0.95
These 5, combined 1.96 0.78

Recent matches

The last 10 games Oliver Burke featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.

MatchMinSoTShots FoulsWonTckCards
FC Augsburg16 May 86 1 1 0 0 0 1
@ 1. FSV Mainz 0510 May 88 1 1 0 0 2 0
1. FC Köln2 May 90 0 3 0 0 1 0
@ RB Leipzig24 Apr 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
VfL Wolfsburg18 Apr 90 1 2 0 1 1 0
@ 1. FC Heidenheim11 Apr 62 0 0 2 0 0 1
FC St. Pauli5 Apr 80 2 3 1 0 1 0
SV Werder Bremen8 Mar 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
@ Borussia M'gladbach28 Feb 81 0 0 0 0 1 0
@ Hamburger SV14 Feb 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
Officials on record
Daniel Schlager 6 games Oliver Burke never booked 4.35cards/game 1.07×vs league
Robert Hartmann 6 games Oliver Burke never booked 3.86cards/game 0.95×vs league
Tobias Welz 5 games Oliver Burke booked in 1 4.75cards/game 1.17×vs league
Bastian Dankert 5 games Oliver Burke never booked 3.60cards/game 0.88×vs league

Raw counts from every match on record, across 12 current Bundesliga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Bundesliga referees

Frequently asked

How often does Oliver Burke have a shot on target?

In 25/26, Oliver Burke has hit 1+ shot on target in 31% of 29 Bundesliga appearances (9 of 29). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.

How many shots on target does Oliver Burke average?

Across 29 Bundesliga appearances in 25/26, Oliver Burke is averaging 0.80 shots on target and 1.76 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.

How often does Oliver Burke get booked?

Oliver Burke is averaging 0.21 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.

Does Oliver Burke commit or win more fouls?

This season Oliver Burke commits 0.53 fouls per 90 and wins 0.43 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.

Which player markets does SharpXI model for Oliver Burke?

Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Oliver Burke plays as a midfielder.

Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.