Birmingham City v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Birmingham City beat Coventry City 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ellis Simms for 1+ shots total (84%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Jay Stansfield for 1+ fouls committed (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lewis Koumas | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Haji Wright | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvin Ducksch | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 3–0 Birmingham City Sep 2025
- Birmingham City 3–0 Coventry City Apr 2024
- Coventry City 2–0 Birmingham City Dec 2023
- Coventry City 2–0 Birmingham City Apr 2023
- Birmingham City 0–0 Coventry City Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Birmingham City v Coventry City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Birmingham City v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jay Stansfield at 73% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.