Coventry City v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat Birmingham City 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jay DaSilva for 1+ tackles (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Demarai Gray for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay DaSilva | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Haji Wright | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Demarai Gray | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Laird | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eiran Cashin | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lyndon Dykes | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Laird | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamie Allen | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tomoki Iwata | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lyndon Dykes | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 3–2 Coventry City Jan 2026
- Birmingham City 3–0 Coventry City Apr 2024
- Coventry City 2–0 Birmingham City Dec 2023
- Coventry City 2–0 Birmingham City Apr 2023
- Birmingham City 0–0 Coventry City Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v Birmingham City?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Demarai Gray at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.