Bolton Wanderers v Derby County
How often each Bolton Wanderers and Derby County player has hit the lines bookmakers price — 1+ shots on target, 2+ shots, 1+ fouls, a card — across their recent matches. How hit rates work ↓
Going into Bolton Wanderers v Derby County on Sat 30 Jan: Thierry Gale (Bolton Wanderers) leads the home side for 1+ shots on target — 5 of 8 (62%); Patrick Agyemang (Derby County) tops the visitors on 6 of 10 (60%). Raw hit rates from recent matches, not odds.
What sits behind these numbers
Line-ups aren't confirmed, so the players shown are a likely XI from each club's recent selections — injuries and suspensions are filtered out where we know them. Hit rates are their recent form, not a forecast for this match.
How hit rates and windows work
Each row's hit rate is the share of a player's games in the window where the bet would have landed. These are 26/27 figures from completed matches: Last N is their last N games; Season is their whole 26/27; H2H is only games against this opponent.
🔒 Model is the paid layer — the model's +EV verdict on each line, per fixture in the tool. The hit rates here are free.
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New to these markets? The player stats guide explains what each line means and how to read a hit rate, and the glossary defines the terms.
Not appointed yet — referees are usually confirmed two to three days before kick-off. See the referee panel
Form is only half the picture. A player hitting a line 5 of 5 can still be poor value if the true chance is lower than the streak suggests. The SharpXI tool pairs every one of these with the model's real probability — and flags the runs it doesn't back, so you're not chasing a streak about to regress. That honest verdict is the layer we're building into the tool.
Hit rates are raw recent form from public match data, for context — not a prediction or a guarantee. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.
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